Gold hit 3-month highs on Monday, continuing its ascent into a third week and reasserting itself as the hedge of choice against a cocktail of geopolitical tensions, tumbling equity markets and global macro uncertainties.
Just two months back, both spot and futures of bullion were falling vs. the dollar almost each day as the U.S. dollar benefited from early signs of the Federal Reserve’s preference for a higher-for-longer interest rate plan.
But after the Fed’s third rate hike for 2018 in September and adoption of increasingly hawkish language, U.S. bond yields spiked on fears of a global economic slowdown, turning the dollar to gold’s advantage.
That trend resumed on Monday with December gold futures on the U.S. COMEX exchange settling up $8.30, or 0.7%, at $1,230.30 per ounce. The peak for the day was a July 15 high of $1,236.90.
The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against six major currencies, dipped after U.S. retail sales data for September missed economists’ expectations and the benchmark 10 year U.S. Treasury note yield consolidated after last week’s seven-year highs. Rising tensions between Western powers and Saudi Arabia over the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi added to gold’s safe-haven edge.
“We have come to the fork in the road in the gold market. Helping bring us to this point overnight was the continued sell off of equities … and a weaker Dollar Index,” said Walter Pehowich, executive vice president at Dillon Gage Metals.
“There are a lot of factors right now that are fueling the rally in gold … significant geopolitical risks, higher interest rates and oil prices … but in my opinion the most significant factor is weaker equity markets,” he added.
Gold bugs are now calling for a resistance test of $1,250. Investing.com’s daily technical outlook itself has a strong buy on December gold, indicating its strongest selling point at the 200-Day Moving Average of $1,273.74 from the current level above the 100-day DMA of $1,223.45. Based on the outlook, gold could have an immediate upside of about $15 from current prices.